Every prediction on this site comes from the same pipeline:
- Team ratings. From current league standings we compute each team's attack and defence strength relative to the league average.
- Expected goals. A Poisson model converts those ratings (plus home advantage and recent form) into expected goals for both sides, and from there into win/draw/win probabilities, the most likely scoreline, over/under 2.5 and both-teams-to-score probabilities.
- Market blend. Where bookmaker prices are available we blend the model with the de-margined market — the blend leans on the market early in a season when standings are thin, and on the model as data accumulates.
- Lock and settle. Picks freeze one hour before kickoff and are automatically graded at full time. Wins and losses all stay on the record.
You can see the running accuracy and profit/loss simulation on the Game Results page.